## Other

drummers-lowrise
 Advanced search

Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : Prime Guessing Game

 Subscribe SortOldest firstNewest firstHighest rated posts first
Author Message
Kevonni

Joined: 20 Jun 13
Posts: 2
ID: 235937
Credit: 12,132,689
RAC: 0

Message 119084 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 8:49:28 UTC

Let's start guessing what the next prime will be like with the Fermat prime pool.

JeppeSN

Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1824
ID: 306875
Credit: 50,010,396
RAC: 13,769

Message 119089 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:16:03 UTC - in response to Message 119084.

In the Fermat prime pool, people express their bids as b values (the b in b^(2^n)+1).

Here we want to guess for the next prime that eliminates any of the five remaining multipliers in the Sierpiński problem, I presume.

Should we state our guess as the value of the exponent n in the expression

k·2^n + 1,

or should we give the number of decimal digits?

/JeppeSN

Michael Goetz
Volunteer moderator
Project administrator

Joined: 21 Jan 10
Posts: 14011
ID: 53948
Credit: 433,172,407
RAC: 1,010,059

Message 119090 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:35:09 UTC

Date is another possibility, e.g., "We'll find the next prime in 2023."

Also, bear in mind that we're currently in the middle of a long double check of prior work, with much lower chances of finding a prime. While the numbers themselves are smaller (which increases chances), since the numbers have already been checked once, our chance of finding a prime is approximately 30 times lower than it normally would be.

Even without the double check, there were nine years between the discoveries of the last 2 primes. The gap between the 2 largest primes is pretty large: n=13M and n=31M.

____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Monkeydee
Volunteer tester

Joined: 8 Dec 13
Posts: 540
ID: 284516
Credit: 1,529,137,601
RAC: 776,107

Message 119092 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 12:54:11 UTC

The next K to be eliminated could be another possibility, or the date AND the next K.
____________
My Primes
Badge Score: 4*2 + 6*2 + 7*4 + 8*9 + 11*3 + 12*1 = 165

Chara34122

Joined: 11 Feb 17
Posts: 95
ID: 490242
Credit: 19,919,585
RAC: 7,234

Message 119093 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:05:59 UTC
Last modified: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:48:08 UTC

I thought about it while I was participating in original SoB and my opinion was:
1. Next k would be 24737 or 55459 (but not 10223 because I did not know that it was PrimeGrid's part of search)
2. I expected it in the short period of time (n<2^25)

Now my expectation is:
1. One of these 2 k's also
2. n<2^26 (Maybe in 2024?)

JeppeSN

Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1824
ID: 306875
Credit: 50,010,396
RAC: 13,769

Message 119095 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:17:49 UTC

It may be a matter of taste, but I find it uninteresting to bet on which k will be eliminated next (I was about to write "that is pure lottery", but gambling on the size of the next SoB prime is a lottery as well, I guess).

My guess for the exponent (of 2) of the next SoB prime shall be:

n = 17.8 M

that is k · 2^{17,800,000} + 1 for some k in { 21181; 22699; 24737; 55459; 67607 }.

I know I will win, and then Michael Goetz can predict when the leading edge will be near n = 17.8 M.

/JeppeSN

JeppeSN

Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1824
ID: 306875
Credit: 50,010,396
RAC: 13,769

Message 119097 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:21:54 UTC - in response to Message 119093.

2. n<2^2^26 (Maybe in 2024?)

You mean the prime will be (just) below 2^(2^26), then what we usually call n (the n in k·2^n + 1) will be close to 2^26 = 67 million?

/JeppeSN

Chara34122

Joined: 11 Feb 17
Posts: 95
ID: 490242
Credit: 19,919,585
RAC: 7,234

Message 119098 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:29:20 UTC - in response to Message 119097.
Last modified: 28 Jun 2018 | 13:48:48 UTC

n Just below 67000000. So I think. And 17.8 million range already passed or I mistake something?

I've corrected it.

JeppeSN

Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1824
ID: 306875
Credit: 50,010,396
RAC: 13,769

Message 119101 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 14:39:59 UTC - in response to Message 119098.

n Just below 67000000. So I think. And 17.8 million range already passed or I mistake something?

You are right! My guess was meaningless :-(

The double-check is currently near n = 25 M according to stats_sob_llr, and the double check will end near n = 31.6 M.

I will come up with a meaningful guess at another time (I guess I committed hubris with the style in my post where I made the silly guess).

/JeppeSN

Michael Goetz
Volunteer moderator
Project administrator

Joined: 21 Jan 10
Posts: 14011
ID: 53948
Credit: 433,172,407
RAC: 1,010,059

Message 119102 - Posted: 28 Jun 2018 | 15:09:20 UTC - in response to Message 119101.

...the double check will end near n = 31.6 M.

Nothing above 31M needs to be double checked. The 31M range was always PrimeGrid's, so the part that's done is fully double checked already.

The double check ends at n=30,999,908.
____________
My lucky number is 75898524288+1

Kevonni

Joined: 20 Jun 13
Posts: 2
ID: 235937
Credit: 12,132,689
RAC: 0

Message 119110 - Posted: 29 Jun 2018 | 1:23:21 UTC - in response to Message 119089.

The guess should be stated as the exponent that will eliminate the next k. I am personally betting on the range from 3700097 to 37911100.

JeppeSN

Joined: 5 Apr 14
Posts: 1824
ID: 306875
Credit: 50,010,396
RAC: 13,769

Message 119114 - Posted: 29 Jun 2018 | 6:47:53 UTC

OK, I will bring a valid bid, then: n = 48,400,000.

/JeppeSN

Message boards : Seventeen or Bust : Prime Guessing Game

[Return to PrimeGrid main page]
DNS Powered by DNSEXIT.COM
Copyright © 2005 - 2023 Rytis Slatkevičius (contact) and PrimeGrid community. Server load 0.89, 1.12, 1.24
Generated 2 Jun 2023 | 16:09:38 UTC